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ARGENTUM WISDOM

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Archive of Featured Silver Commentary

Silver Stocks 2 | May 30 2008 | Scott Wright | AG WISDOM

Got Gold Report - Small Gold, Silver and Uranium Miners Advance | May 25 2008 | Gene Arensberg | AG WISDOM

® Interesting comments on silver near the bottom of the commentary. [Tom Szabo] [6-8-08]

Silver Technicals 2 | May 23 2008 | Adam Hamilton | AG WISDOM

Silver - Major Uptrend Alert | May 18 2008 | Clive Maund | AG WISDOM

® Mr. Maund's chart shows that silver has broken above a bullish falling wedge and should move appreciably higher. I don't know about "major uptrend" but so far his technical call is correct.

New Study Finds Silver Futures Market is Functioning Properly | May 14 2008 | CFTC | AG WISDOM

® The CFTC takes apart most of Ted Butler's claims about the silver market rather convincingly using logic that appears pretty solid. For example, the CFTC claims to have interviewed 5 of the largest 10 commercial traders in COMEX silver, finding that the commercials have numerous customers on whose behalf they trade that sometimes leaves them net long on the COMEX but typically close to neutral when futures contracts, physical positions and OTC derivative positions are taken into account. Of course, the rub is the OTC derivative positions and if there is any truth to Mr. Butler's claims, it lies here. Yet that truth is most likely much smaller than Mr. Butler alleges. In particular, it is the OTC derivatives and not necessarily the COMEX that creates the main risk of default in silver deliveries. Be that as it may, only a few will probably notice that the CFTC actually makes a critical admission that is in total agreement with Mr. Butler and is also exceedingly bullish for silver prices: that low silver prices in the past were due to the existence of stockpiles and the recent rise may have been due in part to the exhaustion of such stockpiles. The CFTC does not proceed to reach the natural conclusion that silver prices will continue to rise unless more stockpiles become available or new ones can be built up, but this is understandable considering its job does not include providing investment advice. So, this CFTC study ends up being a very bullish development for silver even though it pretty much puts one of the biggest silver bulls in his place.

Mitsui Mining’s silver-based autocatalyst | Apr 29 2008 | Johnson Matthey | AG WISDOM

® I've been meaning to post this reasonable retort to Mitsui's recent announcement that it had developed a silver-based catalytic process that could result in a substantial net savings in material costs due to reduced platinum usage being substituted by silver. Johnson Matthey describes limitations to substituting platinum that essentially means the new silver catalyst would represent a niche market (at least in the next few years) and would probably come nowhere near 20 million ounces of annual silver demand. At the same time, it doesn't appear likely that platinum demand for autocatalysts will fall in most of the current applications, certainly not enough to offset increased global demand for vehicles with lower emissions.

Silver or Silver Stocks? | Apr 29 2008 | Bob Kirtley | AG WISDOM

Silver Update | Apr 25 2008 | Roland Watson | AG WISDOM

Silver Equities Enter Buying Zone | Apr 10 2008 | Troy Schwensen | AG WISDOM

® This sums it up pretty nicely: "When I started investing in this market back in 2002, I often read articles about bull markets and how they are renowned for throwing off a large majority of investors along the way. At the time, I didn't really appreciate what these authors meant. 6 years later it is safe to say I am getting a better appreciation! The only reason I remain firmly in the saddle is because I have made the effort to understand as much as I can about why I am 100% invested in this sector. Once you have done these hard yards, you remain mentally immune to what the market has to throw at you."

Pay-Dirt Cheap | Apr 9 2008 | David Bond | AG WISDOM

® Failed bankers like UBS should put some money into Silver Valley (Idaho) silver mining stocks so they can recover their losses and become heroes again to little old ladies.

Short Silver | Apr 3 2008 | David Morgan | AG WISDOM

Does you silver stock truly shine? Part 2: The Silver Stocks | Mar 26 2008 | P. Radomski | AG WISDOM

Buying Silver When There is None Left to Buy | Mar 24 2008 | Jim Otis | AG WISDOM

Silver Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out" | Mar 19 2008 | Jason Hommel | AG WISDOM

Guess who is running low on Silver! | Mar 19 2008 | Jason Hommel | AG WISDOM

Is Silver the Sleeper? | Mar 7 2008 | David Morgan

The $5 Silver Blow-Off Is Now | Mar 5 2008 | David Bond

Predicting the Silver Top | Mar 3 2008 | Roland Watson

How to Get Into Silver, for Billionaires | Feb 28 2008 | Jason Hommel

® Mr. Hommel discusses just how small the silver market really is even with silver trading near $20 and recommends approaches for "billionaires" to buy silver from local coin dealers. The conclusion is that they cannot really acquire a lot of silver this way. I personally would add several approaches that would allow billionaires to acquire quite a bit of silver. First, they could acquire spot month futures contracts and take delivery. Even with a 150 contract limit, that would allow a billionaire to acquire 4.5 million ounces of silver per year, which at $20/oz. is $90 million. This would represent more than 5% allocation to silver bullion assuming the billionaire has a $1 billion investment portfolio (typically billionaires have much of their wealth tied up in their businesses or real estate), which should be plenty enough for a billionaire. Then there is the ETF. Here, the billionaire can use an "Authorized Participant" to accumulate ETF shares in baskets of 50,000 shares and then redeem these for a little short of 500,000 oz. of silver at a time. Again, a billionaire would be able to accumulate large quantities of silver this way. Yet another way the billionaire could get his or her hands on a lot of silver is to buy a producing or developing silver mine, take it private if it is a public company, and have the production refined into bullion for the personal portfolio. I wholeheartedly recommend any of the three above methods as each would substantially increase the price of silver (and silver stocks), allowing an increasing number of billionaires to get into the silver market. So, if you are a billionaire looking to get into silver, I would be very happy to help you implement these strategies for a "small" fee...

Silver Now Outperforming Gold | Feb 27 2008 | Roland Watson

10 Gold / Silver Ratios | Feb 19 2008 | Dr. Thomas Chaize

Is Dishoarding Massive Quantities of Silver from India Likely? | Feb 19 2008 | Julian D.W. Phillips

® No. India has not historically exported silver despite large stocks being held there. There is a propensity to hoard because it allows farming profits to be "saved" without payment of taxes, but dishoarding would require tax payments and therefore hoarded silver (and gold) stays in "invisible" stockpiles permanently.

A Whiskey & Gunpowder Special Report: Silver | Feb 12 2008 | Whiskey & Gunpowder

The Surrender of the Silver Shorts | Feb 7 2008 | Roland Watson

Silver Update | Feb 1 2008 | Roland Watson

® Mr. Watson uses the proprietary "Relative Moving Average Refined" method to time the silver market. This measure reached 1.30 at the peaks of both the 2004 and 2006 rallies but is now just below 1.0. Mr. Watson believes that it may take several months for the measure to reach 1.30 again, which would put the rally peak around May or June with silver between $20 and $30.

The Double Whammy of Geopolitical Global Gold Games | Jan 30 2008 | Antal E. Fekete

There is no Silver Surplus | Jan 29 2008 | Jason Hommel

® Mr. Hommel points out the fault with industry-sponsored studies like CPM Group, GFMS and VM Group stating there is an annual "surplus" or "deficit" in gold and silver. He correctly states the shortfall in mine supply is supplemented by recycling such as people selling scrap to dealers and then goes on a particularly nasty attack of Jessica Cross of VM Group, even though she is saying the exact same thing, just in a different way. The sole issue seems to be her use of the word "surplus", something that I've asked her about in the past. At the time, she admitted the term "surplus" is really a misnomer since it includes all investment demand except the ETFs (they are already included in the identifiable demand figures). See my comments from October 8, 2007 in which she addresses this very topic. [Tom Szabo] [01-29-08]

Silver in Surplus? | Jan 28 2008 | Roland Watson

® Mr. Watson makes the point that the silver "surplus" referenced by Jessica Cross of VM Group in The Silver Book is not a surplus at all but rather the amount of silver absorbed by investors. Even if this amount has truly been 150 million to 200 million ounces per year, the fact that silver prices have been rising strongly during the past 5 years means that investment demand has absorbed all this metal and then some. Regrettably, this very important fundamental driver appears to get lost in the details of the silver surveys, but at least Jessica Cross and VM Group (see my October 8, 2007 commentary) seem to agree wholeheartedly with it. Hopefully, their next report will focus more on the investment aspect of the silver market given that prices are now primarily investment-driven. [Tom Szabo] [01-29-08]

Silver and the General Stock Market | Jan 24 2008 | Roland Watson

® Silver is not correlated to stock prices based on 40 years of trading history. Silver rallies when enough investors take notice that fiat money is losing value, as it is has been and continues to be thanks to Fed action like the latest 0.75% rate cut. Even though stocks may climb when fiat money loses value, the gains are illusory since buying power is lost. Thus, it is not too late to buy silver, especially as a hedge against real losses on other investments due to depreciation in the dollar. I'd add that other fiat currencies and non-dollar investments are in the same boat; diversifying offshore is a poor alternative to owning gold and silver. [Tom Szabo] [01-29-08]

Buying Silver in Britain | Jan 21 2008 | Roland Watson

Real Silver Highs 2 | Jan 18 2008 | Adam Hamilton

Why Buy Silver? Update #19 | Jan 18 2008 | Peter Zihlmann

Silver Shipping Costs | Jan 18 2008 | Jason Hommel

Silver: There's Never Enough! | Jan 16 2008 | Jason Hommel

A Silver Elliot Puzzle | Jan 15 2008 | Roland Watson

Scunnered, or, The Great Disconnect | Jan 15 2008 | David Bond

Silver - Good Things Come in Small Packages | Jan 12 2008 | David Morgan

Silver: Questions and Answers | Jan 10 2008 | Jason Hommel

Silver Keeping Pace with Gold; Set to Outpace Gold | Jan 9 2008 | Jason Hommel

Doubling The Silver Bet | Jan 3 2008 | David Bond

The Silver Blow Off | Nov 18 2007 | Roland Watson